Электронная книга: Jeff Danziger «The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty»

The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

Издательство: "John Wiley&Sons Limited (USD)"

ISBN: 9781118373576

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Jeff Danziger

Jeff Danziger (born 1943 in New York, New York) is a syndicated political cartoonist and author.

Danziger served in the United States Army from 1967 until 1971. An intelligence officer and linguist during the Vietnam War, he was awarded the Bronze Star and Air Medal in 1970. He has spent time teaching English at Union 32 High School in East Montpelier, Vermont, and worked for the "Christian Science Monitor" between 1987 and 1997. He now lives in New York City.

Danziger was listed on Bernard Goldberg's list of "100 People Who Are Screwing Up America". Danziger described the listing as "an honor."

In an interview with The Comics Journal, Danziger said, "Keep in mind that I agree with a great many things that the Republicans have been traditionally for. I am in favor of a solid economy. I am in favor of a strong dollar. I am in favor of looking after troops. I am in favor of maintaining a strong army, and I am in favor of the ability to go into business and make a profit and not pay taxes for silly purposes."

Some would say that it is this brand of conservatism that has led Danziger to savage the Bush administration in many of his cartoons, some of which are collected in the anthologies "Wreckage Begins with 'W"' and "Blood, Debt and Fears." In one 2006 cartoon that appeared after the results of George W. Bush's annual physical checkup were publicized, Bush is shown admiring himself in a mirror and saying, "See, if you jog and work out, and spend a lot of time riding a bicycle, and watch your diet, you can still look good when you turn sixty..." "We wouldn't know..." replies a dead U.S. serviceman, standing amid a crowd of casualties.

One memorable cartoon that won Danziger the ire of the Bush administration was his "Giuliani and Bush" on September 13, 2001; two days after 911. It shows America's mayor among the wreckage of the World Trade towers. A minion runs up with a cell phone. "Mister Mayor...It's the president. He wants to know if it's safe to come to New York now." His rendition of the world trade wreckage also won him accolades.Fact|date=January 2008

In addition to his editorial cartoons, he also created the comic strip "McGonigle of the Chronicle", which ran 1983 to 1985 in newspapers across the country.

On April 18, 2006, Danzinger was awarded the Herblock Prize for editorial cartooning. [http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1002076290]

External links

* [http://www.danzigercartoons.com/ Official website]

Источник: Jeff Danziger

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Jeff DanzigerThe Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of UncertaintyA must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet… — @John Wiley&Sons Limited (USD), @ @ @ @ Подробнее...
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