Электронная книга: Jeff Danziger «The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty»
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A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savageknown for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics Издательство: "John Wiley&Sons Limited (USD)"
ISBN: 9781118373576 электронная книга Купить за 1299.97 руб и скачать на Litres |
Jeff Danziger
Jeff Danziger (born 1943 in New York,
Danziger served in the
Danziger was listed on
In an interview with
Some would say that it is this brand of conservatism that has led Danziger to savage the Bush administration in many of his cartoons, some of which are collected in the anthologies "Wreckage Begins with 'W"' and "Blood, Debt and Fears." In one 2006 cartoon that appeared after the results of George W. Bush's annual physical checkup were publicized, Bush is shown admiring himself in a mirror and saying, "See, if you jog and work out, and spend a lot of time riding a bicycle, and watch your diet, you can still look good when you turn sixty..." "We wouldn't know..." replies a dead U.S. serviceman, standing amid a crowd of casualties.
One memorable cartoon that won Danziger the ire of the Bush administration was his "Giuliani and Bush" on September 13, 2001; two days after 911. It shows America's mayor among the wreckage of the World Trade towers. A minion runs up with a cell phone. "Mister Mayor...It's the president. He wants to know if it's safe to come to New York now." His rendition of the world trade wreckage also won him accolades.Fact|date=January 2008
In addition to his editorial cartoons, he also created the
On
External links
* [http://www.danzigercartoons.com/ Official website]
Источник: Jeff Danziger
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| Автор | Книга | Описание | Год | Цена | Тип книги |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Danziger | The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty | A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet… — John Wiley&Sons Limited (USD), электронная книга Подробнее... | 1299.97 | электронная книга |
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