Книга: Gerd Gigerenzer «Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty»

Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty

Gerd Gigerenzer's "Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty" illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome. "Indispensable... The book will change the attentive reader's way of looking at the world" . (" Sunday Telegraph" ). "An important book ... the reader is presented with a powerful...

Издательство: "Penguin Books Ltd." (2003)

Формат: 130x195, 320 стр.

ISBN: 9780140297867, 978-0-14-029786-7

Купить за 1289 руб на Озоне

Gerd Gigerenzer

Gerd Gigerenzer (born September 3 1947) is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making, especially in medicine. A critic of the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, he argues that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases, but rather to conceive rationality as an adaptive tool that is not identical to the rules of formal logic or the probability calculus. [Gigerenzer, "Bounded and Rational" in R.J. Stainton (ed.), "Contemporary Debates in Cognitive Science" (Blackwell, 2006), p. 129.]

With Daniel Goldstein he first theorized the recognition heuristic.

He has written several books intended for a lay audience on the subject of heuristics and decision-making, including "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart" (1999), "Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox" (2001), "Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty" (2002, published in the U.S. as "Calculated Risks"), and "Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious" (2007)

Currently, he is a director at Max Planck Institute for Human Development. He is married to Lorraine Daston.

References

External links

* [http://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/en/mitarbeiter/cv/gigerenzer-body.htm Resume]
* [http://www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/en/forschung/abc/books.html Books]
* [http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/gigerenzer03/gigerenzer_index.html Edge.org bio]
* [http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/327/7417/741 Article: Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight]

Источник: Gerd Gigerenzer

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Gerd GigerenzerReckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with UncertaintyGerd Gigerenzer's "Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty" illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. However much we want certainty in… — @Penguin Books Ltd., @(формат: 130x195, 320 стр.) @ @ @ Подробнее...2003
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