Электронная книга: Philip Dawid «Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling»

Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling

Several points of disagreement exist between different modelling traditions as to whether complex models are always better than simpler models, as to how to combine results from different models and how to propagate model uncertainty into forecasts. This book represents the result of collaboration between scientists from many disciplines to show how these conflicts can be resolved. Key Features: Introduces important concepts in modelling, outlining different traditions in the use of simple and complex modelling in statistics. Provides numerous case studies on complex modelling, such as climate change, flood risk and new drug development. Concentrates on varying models, including flood risk analysis models, the petrol industry forecasts and summarizes the evolution of water distribution systems. Written by experienced statisticians and engineers in order to facilitate communication between modellers in different disciplines. Provides a glossary giving terms commonly used in different modelling traditions. This book provides a much-needed reference guide to approaching statistical modelling. Scientists involved with modelling complex systems in areas such as climate change, flood prediction and prevention, financial market modelling and systems engineering will benefit from this book. It will also be a useful source of modelling case histories.

Издательство: "John Wiley&Sons Limited"

ISBN: 9781119951452

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Philip Dawid

Infobox Scientist
name = Phil Dawid


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birth_date = birth date and age|1946|02|01
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field = Bayesian statistics
work_institutions = University College London
City University, London
alma_mater = City of London School
Trinity Hall, Cambridge
Darwin College, Cambridge
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Alexander Philip Dawid (born 1 February 1946) is Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, and Fellow of Darwin College, Cambridge. He is a leading proponent of Bayesian statistics.

He was educated at the City of London School, Trinity Hall, Cambridge and Darwin College, Cambridge.

He was lecturer in statistics at University College London from 1969 to 1978. He was then Professor of Statistics at The City University until 1981, when he returned to UCL as a reader, becoming Pearson Professor of Statistics there in 1982.

He was elected a member of the International Statistical Institute in 1978, and a Chartered Statistician of the Royal Statistical Society in 1993. He was editor of Biometrika from 1992 to 1996 and President of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis in 2000.

Papers

* Spiegelhalter, David J., A. Philip Dawid, Steffen L. Lauritzen and Robert G. Cowell "Bayesian analysis in expert systems" in Statistical Science, 8(3), 1993.
* Robert G. Cowell, A. Philip Dawid, David J. Spiegelhalter, "Sequential Model Criticism in Probabilistic Expert Systems." IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. 15(3), 1993
* A. Philip Dawid, Uffe Kjærulff, Steffen L. Lauritzen, "Hybrid Propagation in Junction Trees." IPMU 1994

ee also

*List of British Jewish scientists

Источник: Philip Dawid

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