Электронная книга: Victor Sperandeo «Trader Vic on Commodities. What's Unknown, Misunderstood, and Too Good to Be True»
In Trader Vic on Commodities, Wall Street legend Victor Sperandeo explains in simple terms how these markets operate, removes some of the mystique and uncertainty involved, and offers a proven method for capitalizing on commodity market trends—without taking giant risks. Sperandeo shows that, as commodities are cyclical in nature, your goal should be to capture as much of the major market trends as possible, while balancing that goal with a minimum of risk. Издательство: "John Wiley&Sons Limited (USD)"
ISBN: 9780470249215 электронная книга Купить за 4682.84 руб и скачать на Litres |
Victor Sperandeo
Victor Sperandeo, known as Trader Vic, is a professional
Sperandeo uses a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. He subscribes to the
Career
Sperandeo began his career in
In
Ever since starting to watch the tape at Filer, Sperandeo had been virtually a
Presently Sperandeo is
Options
Options have always been one of Sperandeo's favourite trading vehicles. At Ragnar (above) in
For near expiry and just out-of-the-money options, Sperandeo regards option premium as the price of a kind of right to pure leverage for a period of time. Such options give exposure to large amounts of assets for modest outlays. Assuming a worthwhile trade is indicated by market analysis, then the risk-reward ratio for a short-term option may be as much as 100 to 1. A typical ratio, the kind he targets, would be more like 5 to 1, and taken only on small trades.
Market Analysis
Sperandeo's approach to markets is a combination of
His economic analysis may differ from conventional wisdom, and he views government intervention as often wrong-headed or actively harmful, but that doesn't mean such conventional fundamentals cannot be traded. He quotes
In technical analysis Spreandeo follows various standard technical indicators and methods. The following are methods of his own creation.
Trend
The idea of a trend is so intuitive as to never get a formal definition in technical analysis, even not in the classic "
* An uptrend is a sequence of rallies to successively higher highs, punctuated by pullbacks, with each pullback low ending above the previous pullback low.
and conversely for a downtrend,
* A downtrend is a sequence of declines to successively lower lows, punctuated by rallies, with each rally high ending below the previous rally high.
From the definition of a trend, a trend line can be given a precise definition.
* An uptrend line is drawn under prices, joining the lowest low to the highest pullback low which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the highest high.
The condition that the line must not pass through prices between the points it joins means that it's not necessarily the most recent low which is joined, but might be only a prior one. When the line is extended to the right, it might then pass through prices, that's a possible indication of a trend change. A downtrend line is defined similarly,
* A downtrend line is drawn above prices, joining the highest high to the lowest rally high which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the lowest low.
1-2-3 Rule
Sperandeo identifies a change of an uptrend as
: 1. Trend line (defined above) broken.: 2. Prices no longer making new highs.: 3. Prices fall below a previous minor rally low
Or conversely for a downtrend
: 1. Trend line (defined above) broken.: 2. Prices no longer making new lows.: 3. Prices rise above a previous minor rally high.
Either of 1 or 2 is a probable trend change. Two of the three conditions is an increased probability of a change. All three is the definition of a trend change.
2B Rule
Point 2 above is essentially a failure of prices to carry past a previous rally (or previous selloff). Sometimes prices go just past then immediately reverse. Such a case is Sperandeo's rule 2B,
* 2B. If prices rise just above the previous rally high but then immediately fall back down.
Or for a downtrend change,
* 2B. If prices fall just below the previous low but then immediately rise back up.
Sperandeo regards 2B as a powerful pattern, and in assessing the probability of a trend change he weighs it higher than any other single criterion. The advantage of a 2B is that it lets the trader get almost the exact top (or bottom) of a move (with a stop-loss at the failed high or low). Even if it worked only 1 in 3 times the reward side is excellent due to getting in early.
Four day rule
The four day rule is Sperandeo's favourite pattern for a change in intermediate trend. The rule is
* In an intermediate trending move, a reversal in the form of 4 days against the trend is highly likely to be a trend change.
This rule is based on his examination of trend changes in the
* In an intermediate trending move, a sequence of 4 days with the trend followed by 1 against is highly likely to be a trend change.
This rule is looking for a climax over a series of days, instead of a single high-volume climax day.
Bibliography
* "Trader Vic – Methods of a Wall Street Master",
* "Trader Vic II : Principles of Professional Speculation",
* "Cra$hmaker: A Federal Affaire", Victor Sperandeo & Alvaro Almeida,
References
* "Trader Vic II", cited above.
External links
* [http://aftllc.com/ Alpha Financial Technologies web site]
* [http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/sp_product/ProductBodyTemplate&c=sp_product&cid=1069079164618&b=10&r=1&l=EN Standard & Poors Diversified Trend Indicator web page]
* [http://www.crashmaker.com/ Cra$hmaker book web site]
Further reading
cite book
last = Schwager
first = Jack D.
authorlink = Jack D. Schwager
title = The New Market Wizards
publisher = Wiley; New Ed edition
date = 1995
location = 16 pages
id = ISBN 0-471-13236-5
Источник: Victor Sperandeo
Другие книги схожей тематики:
Автор | Книга | Описание | Год | Цена | Тип книги |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victor Sperandeo | Trader Vic on Commodities. What's Unknown, Misunderstood, and Too Good to Be True | In Trader Vic on Commodities, Wall Street legend Victor Sperandeo explains in simple terms how these markets operate, removes some of the mystique and uncertainty involved, and offers a proven method… — John Wiley&Sons Limited (USD), электронная книга Подробнее... | 4682.84 | электронная книга |
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