Книга: Ahmed Alzahrani «Exchange Rate Prediction under Model Uncertainty»
|
Производитель: "Scholars Press" Conventional exchange rate models are known for their poor out-of-sample prediction relative to random walk. Different models seem to perform differently for different subsamples, forecast horizons, and exchange rates. Hence, there is intrinsic uncertainty about which forecasting model should be adopted. First chapter proposes factor combining technique for nesting all alternative models into a general one that outperforms each individual model. Factor combined forecasts demonstrate that all bilateral exchange rate models are misspecified due to the omission of common factors. The combined forecasts capture the statistical effect of the omitted factors and outperform random walk across forecast horizons; and, they are as accurate as those of best individual models for each forecast horizon. The rest of the book provides evidence that including four empirical factors significantly improves forecast accuracy and stability of best models for longer horizons. We find some evidence that... ISBN:9783639711431 Издательство: "Scholars Press" (2014)
ISBN: 9783639711431 |
См. также в других словарях:
Numerical weather prediction — Weather models use systems of differential equations based on the laws of … Wikipedia
Global climate model — AGCM redirects here. For Italian competition regulator, see Autorità Garante della Concorrenza e del Mercato. Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model,… … Wikipedia
Erosion prediction — Soil erosion prediction models play an important role both in meeting practical needs of soil conservation goals and in advancing the scientific understanding of soil erosion processes. They are used to help land managers choose practices to… … Wikipedia
Nobel Prizes — ▪ 2009 Introduction Prize for Peace The 2008 Nobel Prize for Peace was awarded to Martti Ahtisaari, former president (1994–2000) of Finland, for his work over more than 30 years in settling international disputes, many involving ethnic,… … Universalium
economics — /ek euh nom iks, ee keuh /, n. 1. (used with a sing. v.) the science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services, or the material welfare of humankind. 2. (used with a pl. v.) financial considerations;… … Universalium
Germany — /jerr meuh nee/, n. a republic in central Europe: after World War II divided into four zones, British, French, U.S., and Soviet, and in 1949 into East Germany and West Germany; East and West Germany were reunited in 1990. 84,068,216; 137,852 sq.… … Universalium
